Copenhagen, Denmark - U.S. carbon dioxide emissions are set to grow 0.3 percent in 2010 assuming no additional policies for carbon mitigation are implemented next year, the U.S. Department of Energy announced Monday.
The analysis arrives as U.S. delegates participate this week in the United Nations climate negotiations in the Danish capital. As the industrialized world's leading per-capita greenhouse gas polluter, the United States has offered to reduce its emissions 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020, contingent on the Congress approving climate legislation.
The Energy Information Agency's (EIA's) annual Energy Outlook, the U.S. government's authoritative summary of energy consumption and projected energy needs, demonstrates that present energy efficiency and renewable energy initiatives alone will not lead the United States to meet its climate targets.
"Our carbon emissions are increasing. It continues to increase," said Energy Secretary Steven Chu at a side event during the Copenhagen negotiations. "We should see this as a clarion call to reduce emissions."
U.S. fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide emissions decreased by more than 6 percent this year, the agency said. The emissions drop was due largely to the economic recession, Chu said.
Emission reductions were observed worldwide this year. The Copenhagen Diagnosis, an update of climate science from 26 international researchers, estimates that global emissions will have decreased by 2.8 percent during 2009, compared to the previous year - returning to 2007 levels.
But as the economy recovers, emissions are expected to again surge. The Diagnosis notes that stabilizing emissions at present levels - considered an unattainable goal in the near term - would provide a 66-75 percent likelihood that the climate settles at 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
"There is a scientific case for urgency. It's not political and it's not philosophical," said Richard Somerville, a professor emeritus at Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California.
The United States has invested an historic $80 billion in clean energy projects this year as part of its economic recovery act. In addition, several states have chosen to substitute proposed coal-fired power plants with natural gas and renewable energy generation due to uncertainties about future carbon regulation, the long-term cost of coal, and a heightened grassroots campaign to fight new coal permits.
Still, the EIA analysis expects that a nationwide economic recovery in 2010 will contribute to a 1.5 percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions, under the assumption that additional carbon-mitigation policies, such as a greenhouse gas cap-and-trade program, are not implemented.
The EIA report also projected that by 2035, energy efficiency will reduce U.S. consumption 15 percent, wind power and natural gas will provide the vast majority (83 percent) of new energy capacity, and consumption of oil, coal, and nuclear power will remain relatively consistent.
Biofuels, produced from corn and other biomass, would supply any increased demand in liquid fuels, the report said.
Ben Block is a staff writer with the Worldwatch Institute. He can be reached at bblock@worldwatch.org.
This article originally appeared in Eye on Earth, Worldwatch Institute's online news service. For permission to reprint Eye on Earth content, please contact Juli Diamond at jdiamond@worldwatch.org.
