Sickening — Global Warming Goes Viral

Justin Klugh - Contributing Writer
Posted on Thursday 29th October 2009

It’s no secret that the world is changing. As years go by and we attempt to make up for decades of environmental depravity, permanent alterations to the global outlook are unavoidable. Higher temperatures and a greater intensity/frequency of rainfall are just two symptoms of the overall climate change problem we face.

But we aren’t the only ones who live here.

The planet we will find ourselves inhabiting in the coming years will be a much better suited environment for things we don’t want. While we humans may not be able to stand the heat, floods, and other natural disasters that come with climate change, other species will find a new Promised Land in the aftermath.

Mosquitos

One of these species is mosquitoes, who tend to thrive in just the kind of environment headed our way. Standing water allows for optimal breeding grounds, and the increase in heat takes their virility and ability to infect to vast new levels.

In short, the mosquitoes of the future will be ready for war.

It may sound like a SyFy Channel movie in the making, and while there won’t be any eight-foot mosquitoes carrying off your toddlers (yet), there are plenty of dangers that our much more reproductively vigorous insect friends will provide.

In 1999, the West Nile Virus coughed and spat its way across the Atlantic, invading North American borders for the first time. The pathogen hit 21,000 people, costing 800 of them their lives. From a global standpoint, this is not the most staggering outbreak in the world; it is, however, only the first floor of a viral skyscraper. The point was, it proved it could get here.

All of the advantages you wouldn’t want a mosquito population with WNV to have will be brought to them on a silver platter.

Altered Conditions

It is not just the sheer volume of rain involved, but the pattern in which it falls. One strong rain storm followed by a drought is what the mosquitoes are rooting for; it gives them plenty of stagnant water puddles to breed in, and the dry period afterward to re-stabilize their population. The wave of humidity that follows such a forecast is also throwing them a bone, as it spurs on the starving bloodsuckers to bite with much more verve.

Warmer winters are allowing them to become more and more of a year-round occurrence. As the ice caps at the top of mountain peaks begin to melt, vegetation begins to grow higher up on a slope, bringing insects within closer proximity to human settlements. This all but paves the road for whatever infection the mosquitoes are carrying, and with the higher temperatures increasing the amount of a virus that one mosquito can carry, as well as shortening the incubation period and speeding up reproduction, all paths lead to an outbreak.

This past July, four scientists conducted a research study on the temperature and precipitation of areas in the U.S. with WNV outbreaks. Their conclusion was no surprise:

“Warmer temperatures, elevated humidity, and heavy precipitation increased the relative rate of human WNV infection in the United States independent of season and each others’ effects.”

Disease Threat

But it isn’t as simple as just WNV or the common flu. Remember those awful diseases you spent your childhood contracting on the Oregon Trail (and it’s even more disease-ridden sequel)?

In 1991, South America was the setting for cholera’s first appearance in the 20th century, killing 10,000 people in Peru and Mexico.

Malaria, Cholera, and the rest of the gang are totally within the realm of possibility. Malaria alone tore through Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania in 2000, with South Africa reporting that a four-fold increase in their country’s malaria stats is completely possible. If these outbreaks continue to grow in regularity and scope, the fractured healthcare systems of these nations will not be able to halt the onslaught.

It is a classic case of cause and effect. Yet, the cause itself harbors its own dangers. Before the repercussions of global warming affect us, it has been theorized that melting ice may house bacteria that have been frozen for tens of thousands of years. Thanks to water currents, aquatic mammals, and dead birds, viral bacteria attached itself to dust particles and entered a process of natural refrigeration … but instead of yesterday’s meat loaf, we’re going to see centuries-old viral outbreaks.

Influenza has already been proven to have survived freezing, and spreads quite easily between animals and people. Other diseases unfrozen could be in the form of a strain not seen in centuries, to which the current human body will no longer carry immunities. And should the ancient and modern strains combine, the results could be catastrophic.

One team of scientists discovered a particular strain, “tomato mosaic tobamovirus,” which had managed to survive for 140,000 years frozen in Greenland.

While diseases being unthawed with unstoppable powers is a highly controversial topic, the dangers of viruses advancing thanks to the planet’s climate optimizing their survival is less disputable. It’s a science fiction situation placed firmly in reality, and requires actions to be taken before now. However, as far as environmental concerns go, climate change’s effects on viral contamination have not been considered a priority.

As Harvard professor Paul Epstein explains, “Things we projected to happen in 2080 are happening in 2006. Our mistake was underestimation.”

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